{ "edition": "2026-10-24", "title": "The Ownership Revolution: America’s Fourth Revolution", "body_file": "ownership-revolution-math.txt", "word_count": 5422, "count_method": "Plain text body including math cards, tables, captions and calculation links; excludes metadata, contents and source register.", "body_sha256": "236dcc782ac921e28bc73dfd803203fe344321f56598388f2534873db2a6d19f", "status": "Unscored author proposals. Donation availability, operating-budget absorption, Social Security transition and universal-care feasibility remain unresolved.", "sources": [ { "id": "1", "title": "Historical homeownership rates, 1890–1990", "publisher": "United States Census Bureau", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/tables/time-series/census-housing-tables/owner.pdf", "use": "1940 43.6%;1960 61.9%; aggregate history does not establish equal access." }, { "id": "2", "title": "The Smithsonian Agreement", "publisher": "Federal Reserve History", "url": "https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/smithsonian-agreement", "use": "1971 suspension of foreign official gold convertibility; no mechanical single-cause inflation claim." }, { "id": "3", "title": "Personal Saving Rate", "publisher": "Bureau of Economic Analysis", "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-saving-rate/", "use": "Definition of personal saving; consumption-culture argument is author interpretation, not causal finding from this series." }, { "id": "4", "title": "Changes in U.S. Family Finances: Survey of Consumer Finances", "publisher": "Federal Reserve", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/scf26.pdf", "use": "2025 family stock participation 56%; bottom income half31%;topdecile97%; family rather than individual measure." }, { "id": "5", "title": "What the no tax on tips deduction means for you", "publisher": "Internal Revenue Service", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/what-the-no-tax-on-tips-deduction-means-for-you", "use": "Deduction has eligibility rules and limits; payroll obligations are not universally abolished.", "additional_urls": [ { "title": "Tip reporting, deduction period and payroll obligations", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/tip-recordkeeping-and-reporting" } ] }, { "id": "6", "title": "Trump Accounts", "publisher": "Internal Revenue Service", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/trumpaccounts", "use": "Starter-capital program; author endorsement does not assert guaranteed returns." }, { "id": "7", "title": "Retirement plans FAQs on designated Roth accounts", "publisher": "Internal Revenue Service", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/retirement-plans-faqs-on-designated-roth-accounts", "use": "Traditional-to-Roth conversions can incur current income tax; qualifying Roth IRA withdrawals are tax-free. Rollovers and conversions are distinct.", "additional_urls": [ { "title": "Roth IRAs: qualified distributions", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/roth-iras" } ] }, { "id": "8", "title": "Global Revenue Budgets", "publisher": "Maryland Health Services Cost Review Commission", "url": "https://hscrc.maryland.gov/Pages/GBR-overview.aspx", "use": "Mechanism precedent; not evidence of national savings amount." }, { "id": "9", "title": "Debt to the Penny", "publisher": "United States Treasury Fiscal Data", "url": "https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/", "use": "FY2019 gross debt $22,719,401,753,433.78 on2019-09-30; includes public and intragovernmental holdings." }, { "id": "10", "title": "CPI contract terms", "publisher": "Kalshi", "url": "https://assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/CPI.pdf", "use": "Monthly seasonally adjusted CPI-U one-decimal settlement; threshold and timing definitions matter." }, { "id": "11", "title": "October Inflation US Monthly", "publisher": "Polymarket", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/october-inflation-us-monthly", "use": "October2026 rounded outcome partition; market prices are distinct from independent statistical forecast." }, { "id": "12", "title": "Project1024 CPI AR36 dated forecast", "publisher": "Project1024 original analysis", "url": "data/forecast-oct24.json", "use": "2026-10-24 freeze; October mean0.4097071471784327%;80%interval0.1324226160751969–0.6869916782816685; latest-vintage rolling-origin evaluation; model interval excludes parameter uncertainty." }, { "id": "13", "title": "Using seasonally adjusted and unadjusted data", "publisher": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/using-seasonally-adjusted-data.htm", "use": "Plain-language definition of seasonal adjustment and its purpose for short-term comparisons; individual household baskets need not match the index." }, { "id": "14", "title": "America’s Ownership Society: Expanding Opportunities", "publisher": "George W. Bush White House archive", "url": "https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2004/08/20040809-9.html", "use": "2004 ownership agenda included housing, health care and retirement; no claim that the agenda alone caused2008.", "checked": "2026-10-24" }, { "id": "15", "title": "Levin-Coburn report on the financial crisis", "publisher": "U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations", "url": "https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/subcommittees/investigations/rep/senate-investigations-subcommittee-releases-levin-coburn-report-on-the-financial-crisis/", "use": "Bipartisan investigation identifies high-risk lending, regulatory failures, inflated ratings and investment-bank practices.", "checked": "2026-10-24" }, { "id": "16", "title": "Michael Dell biography and philanthropic commitment", "publisher": "Dell Technologies", "url": "https://www.dell.com/en-us/learn/our-company/lp/who-we-are/michael-dell", "use": "Michael and Susan Dell committed$6.25B through charitable vehicles to accounts for25M children; not a gift to1024 or recurring receipts.", "checked": "2026-10-24" }, { "id": "17", "title": "Gumroad 2026 Annual Meeting: New CEO, and more", "publisher": "Sahil Lavingia", "url": "https://sahil.gumroad.com/p/gumroad-2026-annual-meeting-new-ceo-and-more", "use": "February24,2026 first-person confirmation of IRS employment and stepping down as Gumroad CEO; no commitment to this proposal.", "checked": "2026-10-24" }, { "id": "18", "title": "Indexing factors and application of COLA", "publisher": "Social Security Administration", "url": "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/awifactors.html", "use": "Wage indexing for earnings calculation; benefit COLAs are distinct. No score for the proposed transition.", "checked": "2026-10-24", "additional_urls": [ { "title": "Application of cost-of-living adjustments", "url": "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/colaapplic.html" } ] }, { "id": "19", "title": "Original 2019 national health expenditure release", "publisher": "Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services", "url": "https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/press-releases/cms-office-actuary-releases-2019-national-health-expenditures", "use": "Original publication December16,2020: Medicare799.4B,Medicaid613.5B. Fixed-vintage reference, not net federal outlays or latest revised fiscal baseline.", "checked": "2026-10-24" }, { "id": "20", "title": "NHE fact sheet: 2024 historical context", "publisher": "Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services", "url": "https://www.cms.gov/data-research/statistics-trends-and-reports/national-health-expenditure-data/nhe-fact-sheet", "use": "2024 all-payer national expenditure context; not an estimate under Medicare+ or evidence that the target is feasible.", "checked": "2026-10-24" }, { "id": "21", "title": "Donor-funded ownership and Medicare+ arithmetic", "publisher": "Project1024 original analysis", "url": "data/ownership-donor-medicareplus-oct24.json", "use": "Scenario math only: donor funding, repeat awards, no guaranteed returns, operating-cost absorption unverified, care costs unpriced.", "checked": "2026-10-24" } ], "design_assumptions": [ "Awards$5000–10000 funded by private giving; no public award top-up assumed.", "Donations are received funds in examples, not pledges or a claim of available NGO assets.", "Zero administrative deduction from gifts; IRS budget absorbs delivery cost as an unverified author assumption.", "Vanguard fee waiver and specific program participation by Sahil Lavingia are proposed, not contracted.", "Awards repeatable; annual and every-four-year schedules illustrative, not adopted age or eligibility rules.", "Equity and bond choice; no5% return guarantee. Thirty annual awards are a math sensitivity, not a claim about permitted ages.", "Emergency withdrawal10%charge is an example, not selected policy. No tax-basis or lifetime revenue score.", "Social Security for people over45in2030 protected in principle; formula, exact cutoff and transition require author decisions.", "Younger-cohort retirement-entitlement replacement is author direction; accrued rights, disability and survivors unresolved.", "Medicare+ baseline care for everyone; ten-year test; end target90%of2019Medicare+Medicaid reference. Nominal/real and public/all-care scope undecided.", "Health tables assume350Mpeople and hypothetical care-cost levels; not an actuarial score. IRS audit savings remain unpriced.", "Health original2019program expenditures include funding beyond net federal outlays; reconcile vintages and financing before a fiscal score.", "Teacher and nurse pension transfers are deferred; no conversion or savings assumed.", "Fiscal, tax, housing and CPI examples retain their stated units, dates and limitations." ], "arithmetic_checks": { "service_5k_annual10pct_5years": 8052.550000000003, "service_5k_total10pct": 5500, "mortgage_monthly_360k_6pct_30yr": 2158.381890549925, "mortgage_monthly_360k_10pct_30yr": 3159.257652319677, "annual_primary_surplus_40T_to_FY2019gross_5pct_10years_T": 3.3738866187420626, "household_consumption_tax_100_at_10percent": 110, "illustrative_primary_surplus_100_minus_90": 10, "illustrative_overall_balance_after_15_interest": -5, "illustrative_vested_rent_equity_500_times_12": 6000, "donation_1B_at_5k": 200000, "donation_50B_at_5k": 10000000, "annual_5k_30years_at5pct": 332194.2375150662, "four_year_5k_30years_at5pct": 74694.87254199498, "emergency_10k_charge_at10pct": 1000, "lost_year30_balance_10k_atyear10_at5pct": 26532.97705144422, "health_reference_target": 1271610000000.0, "health_target_per_person_350M": 3633.1714285714284, "health_gap_at4k_per_person_350M": 128390000000.0 }, "revision": "2026-10-24-donor-ownership-math", "revision_note": "Donor-funded repeatable awards, IRS-account and startup-delivery assumptions, Social Security-only protected promise, universal Medicare+, primary-source history and inline math essays. Review version, not automatically published.", "copy_revision": "2026-10-24-viewport-copy-pass" }